The 2022 Watchlist Pt. I - Issue #6
Prospect Pitchers I'm Watching in 2022
BOS - P Brandon Walter
I'm never going to miss a chance to rep my alma mater and Walter is as good as any other reason to do so. Yes, he's older for the level and yes, UD isn't exactly a baseball powerhouse. But he put up above average numbers including a 30.1% K-BB rate. His slider combined with his pronounced arm slot have generated a GB rate of 50% or greater every pro season.
What I'm Watching For:
Will Walter be as effective against more advanced & talented hitters at the AA level? Do the Red Sox continue to deploy him as a starter or do they begin to groom him as a closer?
CHC - DJ Herz
Herz exploded onto the scene last year after a quiet pro debut in 2019. Among MiLB pitchers 21 or younger, he ranked eighth in strikeouts with 135 combined (A/A+). Many evaluators downgrade his command/control (14 wild pitches + 8HBP in 2021) but the Cubs' general lack of pitching depth in minors could cause then to overlook it for a while.
What I'm Watching For:
Herz' FV hinges on that command/control question. Can he mature his throwing mechanics enough to become a consistent strike thrower? If not, how quickly do the Cubs shift him into the reliever track?
CWS - Norge Vera
The White Sox have one of the most depleted farms in the majors but that's a testament to their drafting & development of several talented players within a short window. Now as the senior club looks to contend, their minor league teams are in reload mode and one name that is on the rise is Vera. He has 3 above average pitches including a four seamer that continues to increase in velo (from 92-94MPH up to 96MPH currently). It probably sounds hyperbolic but Vera may be the White Sox best pitching prospect currently.
What I'm Watching For:
Vera has a very projectable frame (6'4, 185lbs) so I'm fascinated to see if he can add even more velo to his pitches as he adds more strength to his body. It was just revealed that he suffered a right lat strain that is delaying his throwing. As a result, I'm even more invested in watching how aggressive Chicago wants to push him through their system.
HOU - Misael Tamarez
I've mentioned Tamarez previously in my Houston Astros Top 50 for 2022 but I feel strongly enough about him to say some more. The gas is legit and he was able to overwhelm less experienced hitters in A ball. However, his splits against lefties are concerning (.753 OPS, 38K:26BB) for any chance of him even reaching MIRP potential.
What I'm Watching For:
Not only do I want to see that split against LHBs rectify itself, I would love to see Tamarez add an effective secondary. Throwing hard is obviously a premium but he doesn't seem to have enough deception in the fastball shape or delivery to survive on that alone. Improving the efficacy of his changeup or even adding a slider increases Tamarez's value in real life as well as fantasy.
LAD - Gavin Stone
Stone is somewhat lost among the next generation of Dodgers arms but his pro debut in 2021 should put him on more radars. Stone displays a solid 3 pitch mix that should keep him in the discussion as a starter. His fastball has added velocity since college (topping out at 96MPH currently) while his change-up & slider are effective if not remarkable. He lacks the upside of a Miller, Beeter, or Pepiot but Stone could hit the mark as a back-end starter.
What I'm Watching For:
Can Stone get through more innings per start? Granted it was his first pro season so it makes sense that he wasn't pushed by the Dodgers developmental staff but I'd like to see him make it deeper into games more often in '22. 17 of his 22 starts went less than 5IP. Even with the changes to starting pitching in the modern game, building stamina early is still a key component for any prolonged success in a major league rotation.
MIA - George Soriano
No watchlist would be complete without at least one Miami Marlin pitcher. Soriano is a class below Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer but he has the size & the fastball to possibly rise in the system. I'll capitulate that he's likely bound for the bullpen due to his limited pitch mix and lack of above average control. However, he makes the list because when he's on, he's on (30% CSW overall in 2021). His slider/fastball pairing could put him on the closer developmental track.
What I'm Watching For:
I'm looking for Soriano to pair down his offerings and focus on tunneling the FB/SL. Eliminating his average sinker should help him become more effective as a strike thrower. Hopefully Miami moves him to AA sooner than later so we can get a better gauge of his ability.
MIL - Antoine Kelly
With the Aaron Ashby hype train off and running, along with Ethan Small waiting on the wings, it's easy to forget that Kelly was expected to be the third member of the next great Milwaukee rotation going into 2020. Of course, the pandemic shut down minor league baseball then Kelly had surgery to resolve his thoracic outlet syndrome at the end of 2020. His prognosis was to miss all of 2021 but he was able to return in July and logged 19 total innings between levels.
What I'm Watching For:
The Brewers obviously saw talent when they selected Kelly in the 2019 draft and scouts all commented on his stuff. Concerns around his command were already being voiced before surgery; 2022 will be a potential bounceback year. I look forward to seeing Kelly on the mound and hope he's and to perform at full health.
Next week...
2022 Watchlist Pt. II