Legends of the Fall - Issue #2
Appetizers
Owen White - Opening eyes in the AFL:
White capped of his 2021 year with 5 impressive starts in the AFL. After putting up 54Ks in 33.1IP, White averaged about a strikeout per inning over 23.1IP in the desert. Not only were the numbers good, he looked dominant in most of his starts. White still has a ways to go before being big league ready but he's definitely going to be an offseason target after winning AFL Pitcher of the Year. Pick him up while you still can!
Andy Weber - Who do you think you are? I AM!: I have to give a major hat tip to Bryan Smith (@cubsprospects) for talking some sense into me about Weber. Even though he didn't get protected by Weber, he put together a solid overall 2021 incl. AFL and is the type of middle infielder that sticks with a major league team. May be worth a flyer in deep dynasty leagues.
Brian Metoyer - The Spin Doctor: Brian Metoyer came into the Fall League as an unknown but leaves it a potential target for 29 other MLB teams. Metoyer was clocked with a curve of 3000+ RPM and he has excellent command of it. Of course, the Mets being the Mets, they left him unprotected. Keep an eye on where he lands; it's likely that a team close to contention would add him to bolster their bullpen cheaply.
Sides
Casas Conundrum
Let me be clear from the get-go: Triston Casas was a very good amateur baseball player, has been quite good in the minors, and, in all likelihood, will be a very good Major League player.
With that caveat out of the way, let me explain that I think have a problem with Casas himself but I think that his value is being widely mis-interpreted. While every scout and writer talks about his "plus plus power" and massive frame, Casas seems to be at his best when he's more of gap to gap hitter than a home run masher. Take it from the man himself:
"You shouldn't have to try to hit for power to hit home runs...I feel like I do that well. I just try to spray the ball all over the field and hit it where it's pitched, get good pitches to hit and when I clip them, I'm big and strong enough to hit them out of the park."
"Hitting is all about swinging at the right pitches, so I'm going to come out here and try to swing at the right pitches. Pretty much judge by at-bats not by results but by whether I swing at good ones and let go of bad ones."
-quote from 10/25/2021 interview with Jim Callis
So what we have is a hitter who is determined to pick his pitches and drive them all over. And he's been successful at every level doing so! Here's a quick look at an average Casas plate appearance in the AFL:
It's a rudimentary example (there's no pitch type data obviously) but it does a good job of demonstrating how Casas commands the strike zone. There are some borderline pitches on the outside corner (pitch #1 & #5) that he takes while swinging at pitches a couple of inches closer (#3 & #4). Casas' patience coupled with his plate coverage allows him to get deeper in counts without becoming uncomfortable but that also can mean that he's more likely to simplify his approach.
Ultimately, Casas presents as one of the most mature hitters in the minors: Incredibly patient, comfortable with two strikes with an uncanny eye for the zone. There's a chance that having played almost non-stop through 2021 (2 minor league levels in one season, Tokyo Olympics, and now Fall League), he might get off to a slow start in '22. If you're targeting Casas, you might catch a manager impatient enough that you can finagle Triston away without paying full cost.
Low on Luciano?
One of the big names anticipated to play this fall was teenage Giants SS Marco Luciano (with a September birthday, he is now 20). Having made a huge splash as a 17 year old in 2019, hitting 10 homers in 38 games of Rookie ball, Luciano was a consensus top 5 prospect through much of 2021. However, after a promotion to High A Eugene in August, much of Luciano's momentum slowed as he hit .217/.283/.295 with only 1 homer and a 37.2% K rate. Arizona was seen as a way for him to reset and regain some of his early season form.
Looking at the stat line, things don't seem to have gone to plan: .236/.345/.361 with 3 HRs and 33% K rate. Some scouts & writers even reported poor live BPs and overall uninspiring ABs. The young phenom wasn't even voted into the Arizona Fall Stars game.
Uh-oh, is the helium finally leaking from the Luciano balloon? I'm not completely sold.
Now, I have to stress that live looks are far more preferable to scouting via Twitter videos and Gameday BUT...looking at Gameday I did notice a bit of a pattern:
Here we have an AB against Owen White in which Luciano gets two pitches in the middle of the zone; he swings through one pitch and takes the other for a called third strike. The first couple of weeks brought more of the same: aggressive ABs that saw him miss on pitches in the middle of the plate that you would expect him to do damage.
Now take a look at this graphic from the "second half"of the AFL season:
Now yes, this is cherry-picking data, I'll wholly admit that. There are still times where Luciano gets three pitches and swings away on all three without much contact. BUT, I started to notice more ABs where he was able to have a plan, stay patient and miss less balls in the zone. Here pitch #3 and #5 were fouled off before he eventually hit his RBI single.
What does this mean? If we combine his High A and AFL seasons, it's apparent to me that we're seeing Luciano hit a learning curve which is incredibly important to his development. One particular item of note is his stamina:
"The biggest challenge for me was how long the season was," said Luciano, who turned 20 in September and ranks as the youngest player in the AFL. "I got kind of tired toward the end but I learned how to handle myself. That was pretty important to me, to learn how to compete through the season."
-quoted from 10/21/2021 interview with Jim Callis
I'm not nearly as down on Luciano as others in the industry. Marco Luciano still shows elite exit velocity going into his age-20 season and I expect Luciano to continue developing as a hitter. While I doubt, you could get him for a complete steal, if he slips into the #10-15 range of consensus 2022 rankings, his price might much more palatable. I'd consider sending out some feelers to Luciano managers then.
Main Course
There were two primetime games nationally broadcasted from the AFL, the Fall Stars game and the championship game. It was a blast to watch these guys in HD with the multiple camera angles instead of the typical Twitter videos or Gameday check-ins.
Arizona Fall League All Star Game - This was essentially the J.J. Bleday game as he was able to demonstrate the swing change improvements that led him to put up a 1.035 OPS in Arizona. If you have him rostered, he probably assuaged any concerns you had from his 2021 minor league season. If you're targeting him, well...I think it's safe to say that the "buy low" window has officially closed.
The other co-Hitter of the Year, Juan Yepez, showed the bat skills that caused him to catch a ton of helium towards the end of the minor league season.
I edited two clips of his doubles in the game just to show his bat to ball skills (Please MLB, don't sue me for using footage of a game that you really don't care to market anyway):
This is Yepez's 2nd AB of the night against Tigers prospect Garrett Hill. Hill starts him off with a low 90s 4-seamer that Yepez fouls off, then throws him a 4-seamer at 86MPH with serious vertical break at the bottom of the zone. Yepez swings through it. 3rd pitch is a 82MPH 4-seamer the bounces in the other batter box. So we get to the fourth pitch and Hill completely misses his spot; instead of letter-high & inside, the 4 seamer drifts to the outside.
Yepez is able to stay back and closed, using his back leg and hands to serve a ground rule double to RF.
In his 3rd appearance was against gas-throwing setup man of the future, Gregory Santos. Santos tops 100 easily and you might think that Yepez would be geared up for heat. Instead Santos starts him with an 86 MPH slider; it grabs more of the plate than Santos probably wanted but he may have assumed that he'd fool Yepez by starting with a breaking ball. Our hero isn't fooled however, he able to stay back, get his hands to fire through the zone, and hit a 99.3 MPH rope for a double down the line.
Yepez's price is probably at an all-time high (I blame @PARSList!) so getting him means paying a ton right now. On the other hand, if you're rostering Yepez, it's important to really identify how you're valuing him in your league.
Remember a few facts:
1) He doesn't play a premium position, becoming more dependent on the introduction of the NL DH for max ABs.
2) He was already blocked from everyday playing time by Goldschmidt but now he could potentially be bypassed by fellow AFL star Lars Nootbar. Nootbar already produced a league average wRC+ (101) in 58 games this past season. After raising his own profile in the Valley of the Sun, it makes sense that the Cardinals would want to get his left-handed bat into the lineup whenever they can. It wouldn't surprise me if Nootbar & Yepez formed a sort of platoon to start the 2022 season.
3) Lastly, Yepez did just pop up after 5 years of obscurity, lacking any track record of power or plate discipline at the lower levels.
These things don't mean he's a dud BUT there's a pretty good chance you could trade up in prospects and/or a veteran arm by dangling Yepez as a trade chip in front of the right person.
Arizona Fall League Championship - If Bleday owned the All Star Game, then what Caleb Killian did in leading the Mesa Solar Sox to the AFL Championship has to be characterized complete command.
A lot of the online dissection was about Kilian's stuff (which is completely earned) but I was wowed by his efficiency.
Out of 68 pitches thrown
70.5% thrown for strikes
34% CSW rate
18 batters faced, 3.7 P/PA
While still in the Giants' system, writers seemed to be split on whether Kilian had front end rotation ceiling or would be stuck as a #5 guy. After his combined 2021 between Giants & Cubs systems along with his AFL stats, capped by this gem, I think he's put concerns to rest. Now, if you roster him and are rebuilding, he's an easy hold. But if you're planning on going for it, Kilian is the exact type of prospect that can help you net a top 150 guy in a package deal. He's catching helium at just the right time, put out some feelers and see if there's a manager who's fallen in love.
Desserts
Baseball Has No Offseason
Baseball isn't limited to just Arizona during the fall/winter months. The Caribbean leagues (Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Columbia, and Puerto Rico) have gotten underway.
Here's three reasons why it's important to temper your expectations for hitting performances coming out of winter ball:
1) Pitching. Pitching. Pitching
Similar to the critiques about evaluating hitting in the AFL, winter leagues are full of average to below average pitching. Velocity and spin rates are not near the level of MLB and may even be second to the KBO overall. For example, at the time of writing, the league leader in Ks is Oriole RP (and owner of the "dead fish"change up) Cesar Valdez. When that level of pitching is able to baffle your league's hitters, it may indicate that there's just not a lot of high 90s or 2500+ RPM pitches being seen. Just like in the AFL, seeing a highly regarded prospect have a great season in winter ball typically just confirms their talent. It's only worrisome when you see/hear of someone struggling.
2) Age of Talent
Age to level is a major factor in prospect evaluation. It's obvious, right? It's simply not as impressive for a 24 year old hitter to put up a great stat line by beating up on 20-21 y.o. pitchers. In winter leagues, the age range is so wide it's hard to really get a handle on how someone stacks up. It's not impossible to grade but the context changes greatly.
3) Defense
I really can't stress this enough: The defense in these leagues are generally quite bad. I don't just mean players booting balls or dropping pop flies (though there's that too!), but there's a general lack of range in the INF & route-running in the OF. Without actually watching PAs from hitters or each inning from pitchers, it's easy to take the wrong conclusions from box scores only.
Defense may be the most important reason to watch winter league games whenever you can, as much as you can, so you can actually see if that XBH was earned or if it was simply an over-eager CF selling out for a sinking line drive he was never going to catch.
What I'm Thankful For...
Each and everyone of you that made a choice to subscribe to a this newsletter based on a handful of my tweets. You all are awesome! I hope to keep growing the readership & continuing to have great interactions along the way.
The writers in the fantasy baseball community who've reached out to me, responded to DMs out of nowhere, and have generally been generous with their time/energy. It's been a wonderful welcome and I am truly grateful to have such a pool of knowledge to tap as a resource.
The sport of baseball, obviously!
I hope you all enjoyed this issue and have a safe, enjoyable Thanksgiving. See you in December!