Learning My Lesson - Issue #4
Trading into a Hole is Easy, Trading out is HARD
Hopefully your league is blessed with active owners and a well-considered process for trades. For me, my initial reaction was hesitation; I figured out early that my fellow managers were more knowledgeable and experienced in this format so I was worried about making poorly thought out trades. But then I made my first one...and I was hooked.
I ended up making over 60 trades between the offseason of 2019 after our initial drafts and the trade deadline in August of 2020. What I wasn't realizing at the time was that it's highly unlikely I was improving my team by trading at that high of volume.
What I was actually doing was signaling to the rest of the league that I didn't know how to value my players and that I didn't have a vision for my team. As a result, I was everyone's favorite trade partner.
Trades are fun and it's great to "get your guys" but you have to exercise discipline.
If you take the time to scout, see it all the way out
Whether you're in the first year of a new startup, taking over an abandoned team, or just starting a rebuild, you'll need to churn players, especially in your minor league spots. What I learned that hard way was that you have to careful who you churn and when.
Often I would identify a player on a hot streak in A+ or maybe AA, pick him up for free off of the wire, and then dump him once he slowed down. Only to watch as he rights the ship, maybe gets promoted a level... All while on someone else's roster.
Why did I drop a player after taking the time to look up his stats, find video and scouting reports? As important as discipline will be, patience is just as vital.
Identify the players that fit your risk profile then wait. There's no need to keep jumping on and off the merry-go-round with every single prospect.
You don't know what you got...
Until he's on someone else's roster. In conjunction with the previous lesson, I learned how heartbreaking it is to see one of the prospects I so callously dropped, show up on the roster of one of my league mates.
Nobody can see the future, of course, but I just wasn't being as thorough as I should've been. I've should've asked myself more questions like:
What's the chance that Player A will be still be available after I drop him?
How much more development does he need to reach the majors (or to get more ABs/starts in the case of newly promoted prospects)?
If I'm letting him go, can I get more value in a trade than in a free drop?
I've started putting up little speed bumps like that now, forcing me to weigh each transaction more carefully.
This ain't Pokemon
Once you start getting into prospects, it can be highly intoxicating, especially if the league is just starting. What I wasn't remembering is that the point is to roster valuable players with the intent of assemble a competitive team of MAJOR LEAGUE players.
To paraphrase Don Draper: "That's what the prospects are for!"
It did me no good to chase after every FG Top 100 player I could if my MLB lineup was woeful. Some highly touted minor leaguers will stall and some will even fail. I had to shift away from trying to accumulate every guy that got a write up on one of my favorite sites and turn my attention to identifying valuable talent to make my team better.
Draft Picks, Waivers, Rule 5, etc.
If you're in a deep league (16T or more), don't trade your 1st or 2nd round picks. That's a recent difficult lesson I learned so I want to make sure to write about it.
Ultimately, the deeper your league, the less areas you have to discover low cost talent. I wasn't getting back impact MLB players or high-end prospects, there was no reason to close off another avenue to high potential, low cost talent. And yet, I still traded my 1st and 2nd round picks...
In Conclusion
I'm not guaranteeing that following my advice will win you a championship or even turn your team into a contender BUT I will say that if you take heed of these lessons, you'll be a much better manager than I have been.
I wish you all best of luck in your upcoming drafts, your trade talks and any other league transactions. See you in February!