April Showers to May Flowers
C Endy Rodriguez, PIT
Rodriguez quickly rose up rankings in 2021 after torching the once and future Florida Coast League to the tune of a .294/.380/.512 line with 15 HRs and a 140 wRC+. Additionally he earned high marks for his arm and defensive makeup behind the plate as a catcher. As you'd imagine, 2022 was highly anticipated as Rodriguez was promoted to High A. However, his April was miserable as he struggled to recreate any of the dynamic plate skills he had shown previously.
Luckily, it appears that Rodriguez simply needed time to make the adjustments to the better pitching. After his cold April, he's warmed up properly in May.
What's even more interesting for dynasty managers is that through this season, Rodriguez has logged time at both 2B and LF along with his natural catching position. If he continues his hitting ways, his value increases rapidly with multi-positional ability or even as a convert to a less physically taxing and less power-reliant position.
C Ivan Herrera, STL
Another catcher that had high expectations coming into this season, Herrera was seen by many as the heir apparent to Yadi Molina as the veteran backstop announced that this season would be his last. Similar to Joey Bart in San Francisco, Herrera gained value in some evaluators' eyes simply due to proximity; it seemed like a no-brainer to pay attention to a young guy that was good behind the plate and could hit enough if he would be getting a crack at a starting job.
Then 2022 started for Herrera:
By itself, the month doesn't look terrible, specifically for a catching prospect who never rated as a great hitter. However, the K rate was higher than Herrera's career norms, dragging down his OBP from where its loftier heights in previous seasons.
One thing you do notice when looking at Herrera's 2021 season in Double A is how it appears as somewhat of an outlier in his career. For instance, after never hitting double digits, Herrera launched 17 homers last year. On the negative end, he also suffered from an incredibly low BABIP of .261 which points directly to his very low batting average.
Fast forward through all of that to this month and Herrera is coming out like gang busters. And no, I didn't transpose his walk and strikeout numbers, he's actually walking about twice as much as striking out! Now, to throw some cold water on his May breakout: It's a smaller than average sample size as he's only played in 7 games and logged 29 plate appearances. That's the life of a catcher and unlike Rodriguez, there's little to any chance of Herrera being moved off of that position. With that being, said even if he comes back down to Earth some (his BABIP for the month is .400), he's clearly been able to tap into the above-average discipline that allows him to be a 50FV prospect for most evaluators.
SS/OF Pedro Leon, HOU
Another multi-positional prospect with some expectations already on his shoulders, Leon was first seen as the possible replacement last season for Carlos Correa in the event of the All-Star shortstop's departure. However, Leon proved to be only an average SS defensively and the front office began toying with Leon elsewhere.
Then when Correa did chose to sign elsewhere this off-season, Leon saw his claim to the throne usurped by Jeremy Peña (who is on track for AL Rookie of the Year currently).
Leon then begin his Triple A season thusly:
Again, more average than terrible but not the type of production you're expecting from an player signed for $4M. More than anything, the power that was a major part of Leon's make-up as a Cuban national player wasn't as apparent at Triple A as it was at Double A last season.
Lo and behold, the season gets a bit warmer and so does Leon. The swing and miss was always a part of his game and why he rated as more power than hit as a prospect but now we see the power on display along with a consistent walk rate. If Leon can work on lowering that K rate to a more manageable 25-26%, he becomes a very dangerous prospective hitter.
3B Elly De La Cruz, CIN
Maybe THE darling of the prospect world last season, EDLC came from nowhere to completely stun both his own team and the outside world with his loud power and cannon arm. This year in many ways, was meant as an encore. But starting at High A with his name and scouting report well known now, De La Cruz found himself at a disadvantage.
It's no real surprise that De La Cruz still muscled out 3 home runs, his bat speed and exit velocities are so high that he'll likely always be able to run into a few homers on pure talent alone. But the strikeouts were piling on and without any walks, he was falling into a 2 true outcome scenario.
Here's the sign of a top-tier prospect: being able to make the necessary adjustments to get back on track and even improving a skill, as De La Cruz's discipline seems to have increased in the current month. Time will tell if that holds out (it's tough for a young hitter as dynamic as De La Cruz to continue to wait for pitches) but if it does, EDLC just added a whole new dimension to his game.
3B Mark Vientos, NYM
Vientos is already known to be rather streaky with an average at best hit tool but some prodigious power. So seeing high strikeout totals or low batting averages shouldn't really be surprising, right? Right??
I don't care how much of a TTO profile you may have, that's ugly with a capital U. The nice thing is that pretty much any sort of production will look better than what Vientos was giving the Mets' Triple A affiliate in April.
Voila! Now this looks more like the type of month we will be seeing from Vientos in the bigs. The walk rate is maybe a bit inflated but still, power is present and the OBP is high...life is good.
OF JJ Bleday, MIA
I hope they play Katy Perry every time Bleday comes to bat, you know, "You're hot then you're cold, you're yes then"—nevermind, the point is he's inconsistent. Bleday had a horrendous 2021 but ended it with a monster Arizona Fall League in which he battled Nelson Velasquez for both the home run lead and MVP honors. Foolish dynasty managers and amateur prospectors like yours truly figured, 'Great, he finally got things squared away and now he'll push his way into the Marlins OF.'
Well, the silver lining is that Bleday is still able to have high end OBP even when he's not hitting much of anything. But what happens if he does start to have productive contact?
The K rate becomes a bit more manageable, the power remains consistent and so does the on-base percentage. Here's the profile of an impact bat ready for the bigs.
Conclusion
Patience is probably the dynasty manager's greatest skill and also the hardest to attain. There's so many players constantly in a state of flux: a swing change here, a new grip there and a dozen more guys become interesting if not viable prospects to have rostered. But before ditching every single slow starter, it's important to give young guys some time. Some players perform better in warm climates, some just need to get acclimated to their new assignments and others just have a run of bad luck.