5 College Hitters I'm Watching in This Year's Draft - Issue #9
1) SS Peyton Graham, Oklahoma
Graham continues to climb up mock draft boards as his potential mix of power and average seems to attract draftniks. The walk rate was lower this year than last but given Graham's ability to make quality contact within the zone, it's unlikely to be a huge concern.
It looks probable that Graham moves to 3B as a pro, partially due to his size as well as his range. Another possible result as he fills out his 6'3 frame: a decrease in stolen bases. After sweeping 32 bags this season, it's reasonable to think that number will decline as he gets through A ball and arrives as a more muscular figure in Double A. That doesn't mean he'll become a complete zero in the category however, he has the ability to still be a threat to steal in the high teens.
2) C Cade Hunter, Virginia Tech
Shout out to Joe Doyle for even bothering to engage with me on Twitter about Hunter.
The context here was around my comment on Hunter potentially converting to a corner spot (ideally 3B or LF) as a pro, to preserve his legs (and therefore his bat). As Joe astutely points out, doing so means that whatever club selects him would expect him to hit at a much higher rate at those spots than the low offensive bar for catchers. It's a really good point as Hunter's 2022 HR total of 17 is likely to regress in the pros. A catcher who can hit .260 and pop 10 homers is golden but a LF with that type of production is probably in a platoon.
I'm still holding on to the hope (because I'm foolish) if for nothing more than to see another multi position C in the player pool. Regardless, with his plate discipline, I think some team will find really good value by dressing him in the 3rd or 4th round next month.
3) OF Spencer Jones, Vanderbilt
I'm typically gunshy of the tall power bats simply because there's so much that has to click mechanically in every AB and they almost always are a suck on your team average because of their large strike zone. But Mr. Jones might be the exception to my personal rule.
At first, he seems to be exactly what I just described as wanting to avoid; looking at his 2021 both in college and at the Cape Cod League, the strikeout rate was quite high. But this season he reduced the Ks and increased his walks, balancing out to an exact 2:1 K/BB ratio. Most importantly, his ability to hit for power didn't dissipate, going deep 12 times along with 21 doubles in 64 games. Evaluators think he can remain in RF as well which increases my interest in Jones, showing potential beyond a 1B only lefty.
4) 1B Ivan Melendez, Texas
So you remember how earlier I said I avoid big mashers, right? There's no way I couldn't be interested in the NCAA HR leader though, I mean c'mon! It's the questions that draw me to Melendez:
- Will a team trust him at 3B? (Probably not?)
- Is this year's drastically reduced K rate (15.7% after posting 26%+ the two previous seasons) an indicator of improved plate discipline or simply a college blip he'll never replicate ( I'm thinking this actually falls in the middle)
- Is there any impact to his power with a wood bat vs. aluminum? (highly doubtful but it seems worth noting that he's not played in any wood bat leagues)
Ultimately, we all know at the plate is where the "Hispanic Titanic" will either cruise or sink.
5) OF Clark Elliott, Michigan
Elliott might be least sexy of all the names in this list, even moreso when you look at his predecessors (Jordan Brewer, Jesse Franklin IV, Jordan Nwogu) whose current production can be described as ranging from middling to unimpressive. However, "high floor" isn't a dirty word to me. What I like in Elliott is that what he lacks in star potential, he makes up for in regular ML starter skills. He plays good defense with a strong enough arm to remain in RF and his swing, while universally described as flat, is geared up to barrel balls throughout the zone.
Elliott is the exact type of FYPD pick to get passed around the league in deal after deal like a hot potato but I think whomever is left holding him when he fully developed will be the beneficiary of a solid multi category contributor. Those are the types of guys that can flip categories and win leagues.
Next Month's Issue...
We'll see what happens to these young men and others in July's draft. Next month's issue of Inside Fastball will be bumped back to accommodate. We'll be handing out superlatives for the first 3 rounds of selections. Until then, thanks again for reading!