2022 MLB Draft Superlatives - Issue #10
Most Likely To...Succeed - SS Brooks Lee, MIN
First things first, success obviously can be a very broad and subjective term when regarding MLB prospects. You could make the argument, given the difficulty of the sport, that anytime a player finds their way to the major leagues, that in of itself constitutes success. Secondly, no...this is not saying that Brooks Lee is the best player in the draft or will become the "best" player in the draft, so keep your angry tweets in your drafts.
What I am saying here is that Lee has the best combination of makeup (son of a longtime baseball coach), experience (arguably the best college hitter in the draft, Brooks Wallace Award winner as the top college SS), positional flexibility (could stay at SS, likely to at least get time at 3B), and approach (hit tool with power ability) to quickly become a finished product for dynasty managers. Lee is the type of player that may never be a superstar but will be a top 200 player in dynasty like clockwork and will always be a contributor without hurting you in any particular category. Lee has the highest floor out of any of the picks in 1st round but don't overlook his ceiling. If you're picking middle of the pack in your league's FYPD, he's a really good bet to take with your first selection.
Most Spirited - OF Drew Gilbert, HOU
How appropriate for the new villains of baseball to add a player who fits perfectly into the "love him on our team/hate him on any other" mold like Gilbert? From an on-field perspective, he's someone to keep an eye on in dynasty/keeper formats as he'll likely get an aggressive assignment to begin his pro career and with any success move up quickly.
The Astros are decently stocked at the MLB level as their 59-32 record illustrates but with an aging Gurriel and the pressing need to keep Yordan Alvarez off the field defensively, you can squint and see where an extremely productive Gilbert sneaks his way onto this team within a couple of years. More importantly, he could present as welcome trade bait for Houston and land in a more barren situation where he would benefit as a talent.
Mr. Perfect Value - P Marcus Johnson, MIA
In a draft that may go down in history for its lack of high caliber pitching talent, Duke's Johnson going to the Miami Marlins in the 4th round may represent this year's nexus of projectionable talent, developmental environment, and price point.
Johnson transitioned from a successful time as a reliever into a starter where he continued to show some tantalizing ability albeit with some need for refinement. His fastball is reported to have come down a couple ticks into the mid 90s since becoming a full starter and is consistently reported as lacking ability to miss bats. But he's 6'6 with a good release point and already armed with a changeup (a specialty of Marlins pitching development) that fades beautifully off of his fastball. He probably isn't a FYPD pick unless your league runs really deep BUT I would not be surprised to see him show up on radars in 2024 as yet another Miami pitcher with helium.
Most Likely to be...Ignored At Your Own Peril - 1B Ivan Melendez, ARI
I'm going to warn you now, you're going to look at Melendez and think "college HR records are nice but he's not going to be able to hit above the Mendoza line in the pros". Or you'll assume "1B only prospect that's power over hit, those guys are a dime a dozen". Or you'll have some other reason for not drafting Melendez when you could.
I'm not saying that Melendez is the second coming but I think there's more than meets the eye with the Hispanic Titanic. Yes he might be limited defensively but that doesn't mean that he's a poor defender. Additionally, the first two levels of A ball (Visalia and Hillsboro) for Arizona are not as hitter friendly as their upper minors environments so any positives at the plate are even more significant.
We know the power is legit and I think there's more than enough plate discipline/approach to help feed it. He doesn't need to be within your first two FYPD selections if you're in a 14T or less but he absolutely grab him in that 3rd round. Worst case, you can package him in a deal later on based on name value but best case scenario...
Biggest Transformation - P Cole Phillips, ATL
Transformation can go a few different ways but as I'm not in a position to really project who's gonna grow another 4 inches or add 25 lbs of muscle, I'll stick to transformation by way of health and development. In 3-4 years, Phillips may be one of the most complete pitchers in the minors in terms of talent and pitch execution. Phillips was already showing some improvement in his fastball velocity but considering he's a high school pitcher coming off of Tommy John surgery, I think he still qualifies for this title.
He has a three pitch mix that all seem projectionable towards being plus stuff at the major league level including a slider with hard vertical movement designed to generate whiffs.
It's notoriously difficult to forecast the futures of high school arms even more when there's serious injury/surgery history but Phillips seems like the type of profile of a player that hides in plain sight until he's in the upper minors and appearing on everyone's top prospect lists. If you take him, patience will be key.
Best Debut Season - P Kumar Rocker, TEX
What, you thought you'd get through an entire newsletter about the 2022 MLB Draft and not read Kumar Rocker's name? C'mon...I may be dumb, but I'm not stupid.
Rocker is the most major league ready out of any player outside of perhaps the tandem of Lee and Kevin Parada by nature of his byzantine path to pro baseball. I won't waste your time recapping it all (#IYKYK) but suffice it to say he's primed to hit the ground running. Of course, like with anything attached to the word "best", it's all subjective but I'd imagine that a (seemingly) healthy and very determined Kumar Rocker pitching in A ball is bit unfair to those 18, 19 year old kids.
Best Future Catching Prospect - Daniel Susac, OAK
I'll admit, this is sort of a cheat. Parada is a better hitter but I have a suspicion that he gets moved towards 1B more as he progresses up levels. I'm still intrigued by the tools of Cade Hunter but he also could be a position convert and even if he's not, it doesn't seem like he is a better defender than Susac. So Susac wins this category by default. Keep an eye on your catching prospects, managers. There's a sea change coming at the backstop position and in a few years, it's very likely it will be a deeper pool than this previous decade. Make sure you're aware of who's in it.
Best Future Infield Prospect - SS Brooks Lee, MIN
I've already sung Lee's praises as a potential metronome of a player but here he is again. Yes, is Jackson Holliday more dynamic? Absolutely, but there's a chance that even if Jackson's good, he'll never meet the Sistine Chapel-esque ceiling above him. Lee is good now, he'll be good in 2 years, and probably will be good in 10.
Best Future Outfield Prospect - OF Druw Jones, ARI
Elijah Green could become a Stantonian Statcast-breaker or he could be a strikeout machine that never gets past Double A. Cross has most of the tools but lacks the defensive prowess while Gilbert has much of the defensive ability in center but is unlikely to reach Jones' level of power production. Sometimes the obvious answer can be the right one.
Most Likely to...Cause Draft Day Confusion - P Zachary Veen, MIN
I had to include this one just because it's fun. I guarantee you that there will be about 5% of FYPDs in the next 6-8 months where someone thinks they've gotten a steal by taking Rockies OF phenom prospect Zac Veen in the 4th round of their draft only to figure out that it's the wrong kid. Call this the Wander Franco rule in effect yet again.
Next Month...
Thanks as always for taking time to read what I write. I hope you used this All Star Break to catch your breath before getting ready for this season's home stretch. As for Inside Fastball, we have 5 issues left for 2022. Next month, we should be back on regular "second week of the month" timeframe for delivery and we'll be looking at what prospects are left to add for free this season after all of the hubbub & movement of the first 4 months of the minor league season. Good luck in the second half of the year!